We’re just over two weeks into the NBA season, so before diving into best bets on the 11-game slate tonight, I thought it would be worthwhile to throw out some early season observations from a betting lens.
Besides a personal model that I run to originate sides and totals, I also rely on market-based power ratings to bet on the NBA. Market-based power ratings use the collection of closing lines from around the league — from all games, but prioritizing recent ones — to compile a rating for every team. It gives a good idea of who the betting market is supporting or fading, and helps quantify team strength beyond league standings.
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Some standouts from market-based ratings are the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs, ranked sixth and seventh, respectively.
The Spurs (5-1) have obviously been a standout, and that is without PG De’Aaron Fox playing a single game this season. They have a 67% chance of being a top-six seed in the Western Conference, avoiding the play-in tournament altogether and making Victor Wembanyama’s playoff debut highly likely.
The Blazers (4-3) lost their coach in Chauncey Billups, but yet are vastly overperforming expectations and seeing the market back them heavily. They play relentless on-ball defense, often picking up full court, and they attack the rim consistently on offense. I was a seller on Portland preseason in the season wins market, but seeing these rankings and subjectively watching their games, my opinion has shifted. That is something bettors should embrace and be willing to do: Don’t stay stubborn to priors, but update opinions with the betting market.
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On the negative side, the Memphis Grizzlies are in pure turmoil. From a preseason win total of 41.5, they are now seventh-worst in the league in market ratings. Injuries to Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome and Scottie Pippen Jr. diminish their depth immediately to start the season. The coaching is questionable, and the star player Ja Morant is clearly not buying in. Memphis is a full sell.
Here are my two favorite bets on Wednesday’s NBA card:
Houston Rockets (-7.5, 232.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
Not only are the Grizzlies injured and dealing with turmoil in the locker room, this is also their third game in four nights – a big rest disadvantage against the Rockets. Dealing with diminished depth and pairing with a dense schedule can be really damaging. This is also just a bad matchup for Memphis. The Rockets will use Amen Thompson on ball guarding Morant, and a strong point-of-attack defense is exactly what stalls the Grizzlies. We just saw this in Memphis’ last game, where Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, dominated defensively and had four steals and two blocks.
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Using my model and market ratings explained above, I price this at Houston -8.9 in my model, and market ratings say Houston -8.8.
The early betting market agrees, as this number opened at -6.5 and has climbed to a consensus -7.5. I would not be surprised if we got a full point further and it closes at Houston Rockets -8.5, so taking the -7.5 is still a best bet on the card.
Bet: Rockets -7.5 (play to -8)
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings (-2.5, 227.5)
In the NBA, the term schedule losses actually rings true. The game has gotten faster every season for the last few years, and these teams are still playing 82 games despite talk about reducing the schedule. Understanding that teams cannot “bring it” night in and night out over the course of a long season and trying to identify signals to find those spots can be important. The Warriors might be looking down the barrel at a schedule-loss spot Wednesday night.
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The Warriors just returned home from an East Coast road trip where they lost to two decimated teams — the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Pacers with an injury report longer than a shopping list. They secured a get-right win against the Phoenix Suns, before coach Steve Kerr announced Steph Curry is going to miss the second leg of the back to back because he is dealing with an illness.
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Immediately after, Jimmy Butler went questionable. He was uncertain to play until being cleared late on gameday vs. the Suns, so I also expect him to sit as well. The strength of Draymond Green is his ability to complement his superstar teammates so well, so his impacts are also diminished. Waiting for them is the hungry and very physical Kings.
This line was Kings +3 prior to the Curry news. It has shifted to Kings -2.5, a 5.5-point shift. Steph Curry is worth 4.5 points ATS, and Jimmy Butler is worth 2.4. This perfectly prices Curry out, and marks Butler as 50/50. I expect Butler to miss the game and this line to crawl out to Kings -4, with a cluster injury component on top of that.
Buy the Kings who have a rest advantage, home-court advantage, health advantage and will also have the edge on talent in this contest.
Bet: Kings -2.5 (play to -4)
