To say that the Detroit Tigers backed into the playoffs would be the understatement of the year. The once dominant force slumped hard in the second half, and perhaps no one player is a bigger personification of the Tigers’ 2025 season than Javy Baez.
Entering the season, Baez’s contract looked like a mistake that had become an albatross as the six-year $140 million deal started off inauspiciously and then quickly aged like milk. Then something unthinkable happened: the much-maligned 32-year-old shortstop transformed himself into a serviceable third baseman, and then a center fielder, and then an All-Star.
At the height of Detroit’s 2025 dominance, Baez has reemerged as the electrifying player the Tigers were hoping they were getting when they signed him to that massive deal, and with some newfound versatility to boot. Then, as the Tigers collapsed after the All-Star break, the bottom fell out on Baez’s turnaround.
A .752 first-half OPS gave way to a .548 mark in the second-half of the year. Baez’s walk rate fell to a comical 0.7% after the Midsummer Classic while his strikeout rate rose to 30.1%. Here we were, back at square one.
The Athletic selects Javy Baez as the Tigers’ biggest X-factor versus the Guardians
So, with a catastrophic collapse in the second half after years of poor performance, why would anyone bet on Baez to be any sort of playoff spark plug? Well, The Athletic tabbed him as a potential X-factor for one solid reason. To state it again, Javy Baez is the Detroit Tigers, personified.
As Cody Stavenhagen notes in the piece, as Baez goes, so do the Tigers. The utilityman has an .815 OPS in Tigers’ victories this season against a .440 mark in defeats. Simply put, if he has a good game, there’s a solid chance the Tigers will come away with the W.
There’s a little bit more here, though. Baez’s defense has been legitimately good as he’s bounced around the diamond. At shortstop, he came in a tad below-average with minus-one defensive runs saved and minus-one outs above average. At the hot corner, a position he last played for one game back in 2019 with the Cubs, he posted 1 DRS and 2 OAA. In center, a position he’d never played before in the majors, he turned in his best performance with 2 DRS and 3 OAA.
There’s something else, too. While Baez doesn’t have the same speed he did in his younger days, his sprint speed is a hair below average, coming in at the 48th percentile. He’s still a savvy baserunner, posting a positive base running run value in the 75th percentile.
Defense, baserunning, and versatility might not get your motor running, but they can quietly turn playoff series for teams that do (or don’t) execute well in those facets of the game.
There’s one last little nugget. While Baez doesn’t have the 30+ homer power of his younger years, he’s still got a pretty quick bat, with an average bat speed of 73.5 miles per hour (75th percentile). From May 1 through June 30, Baez slashed .278/.315/.487 in 168 plate appearances.
Maybe, just maybe, he can start seeing the ball gain well and tap into the life that’s left in his bat to go on another such tear, right when it matters most. That coming to fruition would truly make him an unexpected difference maker.
