A high-intensity rivalry takes center stage on Chinese shores.
No. 13 seed Andrey Rublev will look to break his three-match losing streak, as he faces Yoshihito Nishioka in the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters Round of 64. The Japanese southpaw came through qualifying to reach this stage of the tournament. Meanwhile, Rublev was the runner-up in men’s doubles at Beijing last week. As his quest for a second singles trophy in 2025 takes shape, will Nishioka shatter his hopes early on? Follow BetMGM to get all your updates and odds at the Shanghai Masters.
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Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka Match Preview
After two opening round losses to kick-start the 2025 campaign, Andrey Rublev won the Qatar Open title in February. He was also the runner-up in Hamburg, and reached semifinals in Los Cabos and Montpellier. Owing to his Round of 64 exit at the Shanghai Masters in 2024, this year’s edition presents a golden opportunity for the 27-year-old to make amends and earn some vital ranking points. Currently ranked No. 14 in the world, Rublev has a winning ratio of just under 60% so far. He will be hoping to snap his unwanted run of two back-to-back tournaments where he has lost his opener.
Yoshihito Nishioka has won three matches since the start of qualifying – all without dropping a set. The 30-year-old has been on tour for over a decade now, and is a former Top-25 star. Japan’s premier left-hander has struggled in the ongoing campaign – he is currently left stranded with a miserly tour-level record of 10-16. The World No. 73 defeated Shevchenko 6-1 6-2 in the Round of 128. When it comes to hard court statistics in 2025, Nishioka has been winning 61% service points and 33% return points.
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka Head to Head Record
Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head against Yoshihito Nishioka by 3-2.
Nishioka won the first meeting between these two players, way back in 2019. In fact, he held a narrow 2-1 advantage in the rivalry at one stage, before Rublev came storming back. In the most recent encounter, the Russian thrashed his Japanese counterpart in straight sets at the Masters-1000 in Paris Bercy (2023).
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2023 Paris Bercy | Round of 32 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023 Madrid | Round of 32 | Andrey Rublev | 6-2 7-5 |
| 2022 Washington | Semifinal | Yoshihito Nishioka | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021 ATP Cup | Round Robin | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2019 Sydney | Round of 16 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 6-3 6-1 |
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka Career Comparison
| Andrey Rublev | Category | Yoshihito Nishioka |
| 14 | Current Ranking | 173 |
| 367-206 | Career W-L Record | 145-164 |
| 32-22 | YTD W-L Record | 10-16 |
| 17 | Career Titles | 3 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai Masters 2025 Prediction
Rublev and Nishioka have played out some fiercely contested battles in the past. In terms of recent form, neither player merits too much in their own favor. But on the outdoor hard courts of Shanghai, Rublev’s power game might come to his aid. The Russian will look to land a high percentage of first serves to put Nishioka on the back-foot due to his height, and dictate play from there. The 30-year-old Japanese sensation is likely to adopt a deeper court position; it will be interesting to see if Rublev produces any variations and changes of pace.
Prediction: Andrey Rublev in three sets.
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai Masters 2025 Betting Odds
Rublev is the clear favorite (3/10) and Nishioka is an underdog (5/2) for the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters second round. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Russian has an 80% chance of advancing to the next round. Here are the odds for this match-up (as per BetMGM):
- Andrey Rublev Win: 3/10
- Yoshihito Nishioka Win: 5/2
- Total Games >22.5: Evens
- Nishioka +3.5 (Game Handicap): Evens
- Rublev -1.5 (Set Handicap): 17/20
- Nishioka +1.5 (Set Handicap): 10/11
- Rublev to Win 2-0: 41/50
- Total Sets <2.5: 12/25
- Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 4/7
- Total Games By Nishioka >10.5: 9/10
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images)
