Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 13 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 13, which kicks off Thursday with three Thanksgiving Day games.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

CHI-PHI | SF-CLE | JAC-TEN | HOU-IND | NO-MIA | ATL-NYJ | ARI-TB
LAR-CAR | MIN-SEA | BUF-PIT| LV-LAC| DEN-WAS | NYG-NE

Projected score: Eagles 26, Bears 22

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Rome Odunze, DeVonta Smith

Fantasy scoop: D’Andre Swift’s value is trending down after he was on the short end of a committee with rookie Kyle Monangai on Sunday. Whereas Monangai racked up 12 carries and zero targets on 34 snaps (16 routes), Swift handled eight carries and one target on 26 snaps (13 routes). This marked the first game in which Monangai outsnapped Swift, so it’s possible the snaps revert back, but Swift didn’t exactly do much to suggest he should be featured (29 yards on nine touches, compared with 48 yards and one TD on 12 touches for Monangai). Swift’s 1.9 fantasy points were easily a season low, though he was held to 9.0 points the week prior despite handling 21 touches. Monangai, meanwhile, has scored in three straight games but was held under 11 fantasy points in all three and in nine of 11 games this season. The uncertainty of how touches will be distributed makes both backs risky in a neutral matchup against the Eagles on Friday, though Swift’s larger body of work makes him the safer flex option.

Shadow Report: Rome Odunze can expect shadow coverage courtesy of Quinyon Mitchell this week. Mitchell has shadowed the opposing team’s top perimeter receiver in six games this season. Those six receivers averaged 11.8 fantasy PPG, with Emeka Egbuka, Courtland Sutton and Davante Adams each reaching at least 14.6. Though this is a tough matchup and the Eagles’ defense has generally played well, it’s worth noting that George Pickens went for 29.6 points against Philly on Sunday. Like Pickens, Odunze is his team’s top boundary receiver. Odunze’s bust risk his higher than usual, but he’s still in the WR2 mix.

Over/under: 48.1 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Eagles 65% (ninth highest)

Projected score: 49ers 22, Browns 18

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: Shedeur Sanders made his first NFL start Sunday and completed 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, losing 1 yard on his lone carry. Though the passing YPA looks good, Sanders benefited greatly from hitting on three big plays against a poor defense, two of which were downfield throws (52 yards to Isaiah Bond, 39 yards to Jerry Jeudy) with the other a 66-yard catch-and-run by Dylan Sampson. Sanders deserves credit for making enough plays to win, but he’ll need to improve his accuracy (55% completion rate, 25% off-target rate in the game) and add value with his legs to find his way to fantasy value. He has another good matchup this week (the 49ers sit top eight in passing yards and TDs allowed) but should be viewed as no more than a weak QB2 option in superflex leagues.

Over/under: 39.6 (14th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 64% (10th highest)

Projected score: Jaguars 24, Titans 19

Lineup lock: Travis Etienne Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Brenton Strange returned from IR on Sunday and caught all five of his targets for a career-high 93 yards. Despite having yet to find the end zone this season, Strange is averaging a solid 10.3 fantasy points in five full games, which would rank 14th among qualified tight ends over the full season. Strange’s 5.6 targets per game (16.7% share) are enough to position him as a solid TE2, though he’s perhaps not the best Week 13 streaming option against a Titans defense that has struggled overall but been pretty good against tight ends. Tennessee has held Tyler Warren (twice), Trey McBride and Hunter Henry to single-digit fantasy points, and only one opposing TE has reached 12 (Michael Mayer in Week 6).

Shadow Report: Upgrade Jacksonville’s receivers against a Titans defense that has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers, including the second most over the past four weeks. Tennessee also sits top three in yards, catch rate and yards per target allowed to receivers. One week after allowing a massive 37.1 points to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tennessee corners Jalyn Armour-Davis, Sam Womack, Marcus Harris and Darrell Baker Jr. will do their best to slow Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.

Over/under: 42.4 (11th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 66% (eighth highest)

Projected score: Colts 25, Texans 21

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren

Shadow Report: Downgrade Collins, Jayden Higgins and all Texans receivers against a now-healthy Colts cornerback room that is perhaps best in the NFL. Collins (79% perimeter) and Higgins (77%) will spend most of their time against Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the boundary, and life won’t be much easier for them (or slot WR Christian Kirk) against Kenny Moore when they kick inside. Collins remains a lineup lock, but Higgins is a shaky flex.

Shadow Report: It’s far from a lock, but there’s a chance Pittman will draw Derek Stingley Jr. shadow coverage. Stingley has never shadowed Pittman, but we’ve seen Stingley travel with top perimeter receivers this season (Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr., Courtland Sutton) and we’ve seen Pittman shadowed on his boundary routes at times, including against Pat Surtain II and Max Melton. Regardless, this is a tough assignment for all Colts receivers, as the Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate and fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only four receivers have reached 13 points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Downgrade Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.

Over/under: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Colts 63% (11th highest)

Projected score: Dolphins 23, Saints 17

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Alvin Kamara left Sunday’s game on his 11th snap due to injury and might miss this game. Following Kamara’s departure, Devin Neal and Taysom Hill handled backfield duties. After not playing a single snap while Kamara was active, Neal went on to play 58 of the Saints’ final 66 snaps. He was limited to seven carries but ran 31 routes and was targeted eight times. Hill, meanwhile, played five of 12 snaps with Kamara healthy (two carries) and 19 of 66 after that point (eight carries), sometimes sharing the field with Neal. (It’s worth noting that Hill fumbled and committed intentional grounding on his final snap, then didn’t see the field for the final 22 plays.) With Kamara sidelined, it’s likely that Hill, Neal and Audric Estime (healthy scratch on Sunday) will split backfield duties. Hill’s tight end fantasy designation adds some intrigue to his value, but a lack of receiving work this season (four targets) makes him very risky and TD dependent. Neal’s massive snap and target count are enough to vault him into the flex conversation, but he’s not a recommended start considering he is yet to be trusted with more than seven carries in a game in a struggling Saints offense. This is a situation best avoided.

Over/under: 39.6 (13th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 72% (fifth highest)

Projected score: Falcons 21, Jets 19

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall

Fantasy scoop: John Metchie III followed up a 3-45-1 receiving line in Week 11 with a 6-65-1 showing Sunday. Metchie has scored 13-plus fantasy points in consecutive games after reaching that mark in just one of his first 41 NFL games. Of course, the 2022 second-round pick has never had this much opportunity, as he has cleared an 80% snap share in two straight games after never previously reaching that mark. Metchie paced New York receivers in snaps (50) and routes (28) on Sunday, and tied Adonai Mitchell for the position lead in targets (7). At least until Garrett Wilson returns, Metchie appears to have a grasp on the Jets’ No. 1 receiver role, though that might not mean consistent fantasy production considering the team’s quarterback woes. Metchie is fine to add on waivers, but he’s no more than a desperation flex for now even in a plus matchup against the Falcons.

Over/under: 39.8 (12th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 58% (15th highest)

Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 20

Lineup locks: Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Chris Godwin Jr. was limited in his return from injury Sunday, playing just 34% of the snaps and totaling 9 yards on four targets. Godwin has yet to make an impact this season, producing a grand total of 52 yards on 14 targets during his only other two appearances (Weeks 4 and 5). Godwin’s playing time will only increase as the season progresses, so he should remain on your roster, but we won’t be able to trust him in lineups until he’s clearly operating as the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 target. That’s unlikely to be the scenario this week, so he should be on benches against an Arizona defense that sits midpack against the pass and with Baker Mayfield not at full strength. If Godwin gets closer to his usual role this week, he’ll likely land on the flex radar against the Saints in Week 14.

Over/Under: 43.3 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 59% (14th highest)

Projected score: Rams 27, Panthers 16