Four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic begins his 2025 tournament on Sunday night at Arthur Ashe Stadium against American Learner Tien in the first meeting between the two players in their respective careers.
Djokovic – the No. 7 player in the world at the moment – is a massive favorite to advance to the second round of the US Open, and he’s at least made the third round in each of his appearances.
Tien has yet to win at the US Open, but he’ll look to turn his fortune around against one of the greatest players of all time.
Let’s take a look at the odds, the history for both of these players at the US Open and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Moneyline
Total
Djokovic is a four-time winner of the US Open, and he’s made the final 10 total times. His last win came in 2023, but he’s actually coming off a disappointing showing in 2024 when he was bounced in the third round.
Djokovic has at least made the third round in all of his appearances at the US Open, so it’s not a surprise that he’s a -700 favorite to advance on Sunday.
This is the fourth time that Tien is competing in the US Open in his career, but he’s never won his first-round match.
However, the 19-year-old has taken a step forward in 2025, making the fourth round of the Australian Open and the second round at Wimbledon.
He’s a long shot to pull off the upset, but there is some familiarity for him at the US Open compared to the other Grand Slam events. .
Even though Tien has experience at the US Open, I’m expecting Djokovic to make quick work of him on Sunday night.
Based on the odds of Djokovic -700, the Serbian has an implied probability of 87.5 percent to advance to the second round. Since he’s never failed to do so in his career, I think he’ll roll in this match.
When it comes to a best bet, I don’t mind the UNDER in games for Djokovic in this match. Tien has been bounced early in each of his matches at the US Open, and he’s only 17-18 straight up this year.
So, a player of Djokovic’s caliber should be able to make pretty quick work of him on Sunday.
Pick: Djokovic to Win (-700, UNDER 34.5 Games at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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