Red October?
Sorry, but get ready for another Dread October.
The Phillies made two moves before Wednesday’s trade deadline that they absolutely needed to make, acquiring in separate trades with the Twins one of the most dominant closers in the game and an outfielder with excellent defensive acumen who’s also a decent right-handed bat.
On the surface, the additions of flame-thrower Jhoan Duran and one-time Gold Glove outfielder Harrison Bader are remedies for arguably the team’s two most glaring deficiencies.
But at the same time, if you squint just enough, Duran and Bader look a lot like Carlos Estevez and Austin Hays, the closer-outfielder pairing from last year’s trade deadline that will go down as one of Dave Dombrowski’s worst as an executive.
Estévez played his part in all-out bullpen implosion against the Mets in the National League Division Series, while Hays batted just .236 and dealt with numerous injuries, including a kidney infection, that rendered him a non-factor in his short Phillies tenure.
Dombrowski’s big splash this season only looks that way because his past deadline moves for the Phillies barely registered on the Richter scale.
To be clear, Duran is younger, throws much harder, and has plenty more upside – along with future control – than Estévez, and Bader would have to be the unluckiest player in baseball history to endure the same pitfalls Hays encountered, but to be even clearer – even if the Phillies had 2025 Duran and Bader on last year’s team, they weren’t winning the World Series.
Individually, neither can fix this team’s biggest shortcomings, which are going toe-to-toe with several other National League clubs that also addressed their glaring problems at the deadline and a batting order that has no true cleanup hitter and no intimidating protection for Bryce Harper.
Too many times this season, the Phillies have played three-on-nine, leaning too heavily on the Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Harper to be their entire offense to support an otherwise brilliant starting rotation.
Other upgrades are potentially on the way, as David Robertson, Justin Crawford and perhaps Andrew Painter could all be summoned from Triple A in the coming days or weeks, but the reality is that this Phillies team is once again headed for a Blue October if their lineup doesn’t execute an about face.
There’s also an alternative reality that the Phillies and Dombrowski refused to bankrupt the future to make an extra push for October. Opportunities to acquire a more potent bat were there, but Dombrowski passed. Opportunities to bring in another power arm for the bullpen were there, but the Phillies were unwilling to push the prospect pedal any further to the floor.
“I can’t tell you there was any club over the last time period that we did not speak to. There is no stone unturned,” Dombrowski told reporters Wednesday in a post-deadline Zoom. “But we felt good with our club. We didn’t have a lot of gaping holes.”
And there it is – Dombrowski’s admission that he views his team differently than mostly everyone else. Bader and Duran are his version of a bloop and a blast.
Dombrowski went on to say improvement must “come internally” but then used Brandon Marsh’s recent hot streak as an example of how quickly fortunes can reverse.
Brandon Marsh!? Are we being serious here, Dave?
Singling out a platoon player to illustrate a point about the offense’s potential is peak 2025 Phillies, and not substantially different from 2023 and 2024.
Because of their insistence on holding onto top farmhands, the Phillies still have Painter, Crawford, Aidan Miller, Aroon Escobar and some other highly-rated prospects still in their system.
But also because of their stance, the Phillies didn’t really separate themselves from the half-dozen other National League teams that also went shopping over the past 24 hours.
The Mets, who lead the Phillies by a half-game in the NL East, saw the Phillies two relievers and raised them a third, dealing for two-time All-Star closer Ryan Helsley after already getting Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers. After the Phillies got Bader, the Mets added Cedric Mullins.
The Padres, who trail the Phillies by one game for the second wild card, surrendered their top overall prospect – and seven others of their top 30– to get the game’s best closer (Mason Miller) along with outfielders Ryan O’Hearn (a 2025 All Star), Ramon Laureano, and left-handed starter Nestor Cortes among some others.
The Phils are clearly trying to avoid another dry period like 2013-2017, when the farm produced scant talent and the Cole Hamels trade ended up becoming a dud. They never won more than 73 games in that span. That’s an understandable caution.
But if the objective is to win it all – or to get John Middleton his bleepin’ trophy back – Dombrowski just showed undeserved faith in a lineup that has time and time again let him – and the city – down.
The Phillies didn’t want to go for broke. But who’s to say they’re truly fixed?
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