Phillies vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Picks – September 28

Data Skrive

Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Brooks Lee and the Minnesota Twins on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies are listed as -208 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Twins (+174). Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). An 8-run over/under is set in this game.

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Twins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Twins Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: NBCS-PH and MNNT

Phillies vs. Twins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Twins 3
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 60%, Twins 40%

Phillies vs. Twins Betting Insights

• The Phillies have won 79, or 62.2%, of the 127 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
• Philadelphia is 19-5 this season when entering a game favored by -208 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 67.5%.
• The Twins have come away with 27 wins in the 69 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Minnesota has won all of its four games in which it was named as at least a +174 moneyline underdog.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Twins have a 36.5% chance of walking away with the win.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies went 3-2 across the five games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all had set totals), the Phillies combined with their opponents to go over the run total six times.
• The Phillies’ ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Schwarber has gone yard 56 times in the 2025 campaign while driving in 132 runs, both totals that lead the Phillies.
• Schwarber ranks second in home runs and first in RBI among all batters in MLB.
• Bryce Harper has 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 69 walks while batting .263.
• Harper is 37th in homers and 66th in RBI on the season.
• Harper carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .263 with three walks.
• Bryson Stott is hitting .256 with 22 doubles, three triples, 13 home runs and 54 walks.
• Nick Castellanos is batting .252 with 27 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 32 walks.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins have played as underdogs in nine of their past 10 games and have gone 3-6 in those contests.
• The Twins and their opponents have combined to hit the over two times in their last 10 games with a total.
• Over their last 10 games, the Twins are 4-6-0 against the spread.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Byron Buxton leads the lineup with a batting average of .263, and leads the Twins in home runs, with 34 and runs batted in with 82.
• Buxton’s home run total places him 13th in MLB, and he ranks 49th in RBI.
• Trevor Larnach is batting .249 with 23 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 53 walks.
• Larnach is 111th overall in home runs and 129th in RBI this year.
• Lee is batting .235 with 15 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 30 walks.
• Ryan Jeffers has 24 doubles, nine home runs and 49 walks while hitting .259.

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