Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight on a massive Super Sunday where Arsenal and Man City lock horns.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Live Super Sunday
Sunday 21st September 1:00pm
Andoni Iraola is creating a strong body of work when it comes to facing Eddie Howe.
When these two meet, Iraola’s tactical set-up tends to frustrate Newcastle’s game which is centred on physicality. Iraola’s teams are brilliant at shutting down space, disrupting patterns of play and hitting on the counter with sharp, clinical transitions.
It’s that balance of defensive rigidity and quickfire attacking that has consistently caught Howe’s sides off guard. In four meetings, Iraola is unbeaten against Howe, winning twice, and the underlying data paints a very clear picture of how Bournemouth have dominated the Toon.
In those four matches, Iraola’s team have averaged an expected goals per 90 of 2.4 – a huge figure. The home win is likely to be very popular at 13/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The Aston Villa downward trajectory wasn’t something I saw coming.
And while they remain in this malaise it’s hard to trust them to win football matches when priced up as the favourites at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
The glaring issue is their lack of cutting edge in the final third. Chance creation? It’s been painfully limited.
Failing to score in four matches can happen in a low scoring sport like football but the underlying numbers are extremely worrying. To put up a 0.77 expected goals tally per 90 from a relatively soft set of fixtures is a horrendous return – only Wolves have posted a lower figure.
To carry this goal drought weight with you to a place like the Stadium of Light, where the home crowd is a 12th man and the team is expertly drilled, doesn’t inspire much confidence that this is where things will spark for Villa.
The home side on the draw no bet at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks the way to play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Arsenal vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Gabriel Magalhaes vs Erling Haaland is always a riveting and blockbuster sideshow when these two rivals meet.
There’s animosity and with it comes excellent betting angles surrounding Haaland’s foul output. In eight meetings where he’s come up against Gabriel, the bulldozing City forward has made 16 fouls, so working to a two-per-game average.
That is a spike on his usual foul data and something which is not factored into the way Haaland’s foul probabilities are priced up by the traders.
That’s an edge right there in our favour.
To keep up this average of two fouls per game, Haaland is available at a whopping 11/4 with Sky Bet, implying a probability of just 26 per cent. I’d have the chances closer to 50 per cent in this type of fiery fixture where Arsenal should edge it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Erling Haaland to commit +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Best Bets:
- 1pt double on Liverpool to win & under 3.5 goals & under 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Tottenham (4/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Erling Haaland to commit +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)
