Blame Christopher Ilitch, Scott Harris for Detroit Tigers’ collapse
On “Days of Roar,” Evan Petzold and Chris Brown evaluate who to blame for the Detroit Tigers’ collapse, highlighting Chris Ilitch and Scott Harris.
The Detroit Tigers (85-73) are no longer in charge of their fate. In fact, the Cleveland Guardians own all of the cards to win the American League Central title.
The magic number for the Guardians (86-72) to win the division is three after they defeated the Tigers, 5-1, on Wednesday, Sept. 24, in Cleveland.
The team that doesn’t win the division could wind up with the AL’s final wild-card spot. The Tigers are one game ahead of the Houston Astros (84-74), and they also have the tiebreaker thanks to a 4-2 edge in the season series. Six teams in each league make the playoffs.
AL Central standings
Entering Thursday’s game:
- Guardians (86-72)
- Tigers (85-73)
AL playoff picture
The Tigers have also dropped out of the second seed in the AL playoffs, which comes with a first-round bye to the ALDS, bypassing the wild-card round.
AL playoff standings (via USA TODAY Sports) entering Thursday’s games:
- 1. Blue Jays: 90-68 (AL East)
- 2. Mariners: 89-69 (AL West)
- 3. Guardians: 86-72 (AL Central)
- 4. Yankees: 90-68
- 5. Red Sox: 87-71
- 6. Tigers: 85-73
The Astros are seventh at 84-74. They would lose the tiebreaker to either the Tigers, Guardians or Red Sox due to dropping the head-to-head season series against each team.
Tigers-Guardians tiebreaker
The Guardians hold a 8-4 lead in the head-to-head season series over the Tigers, sealing the tiebreaker advantage. There is no Game 163 in MLB anymore.
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Tigers playoff scenarios vs Guardians
- The Tigers winning the series finale against the Guardians would create a tie in the division entering each team’s final series of the regular season. The Guardians own the tiebreaker, so the Tigers would need the Guardians to lose a game to the Texas Rangers in a three-game series in Cleveland.
- A Guardians sweep of the Tigers would give Cleveland a two-game divisional lead with three games to play, plus the tiebreaker, putting Cleveland’s magic number at one (one Tigers loss or Cleveland win) to complete the AL Central comeback from 15½ games back in July. This would put the Tigers’ playoff chances in peril. Entering Thursday, the Tigers own a one-game lead over the Astros, which is the first team out of the AL playoffs entering the final week. The Tigers own the tiebreaker on Houston.
Entering Thursday’s games:
The Tigers magic number is seven to clinch the AL Central (Tigers wins plus Guardians losses).
The Tigers magic number is three to clinch a playoff spot in the wild-card round over the Astros, who are second in the AL West and were eliminated by the Seattle Mariners – the AL’s No. 2 seed – on Wednesday night.
Cleveland Guardians magic number update
Entering Thursday’s games:
The Guardians magic number is three (Tigers losses and Guardians wins).
How do you calculate a team’s magic number in baseball?
There are two different ways to determine a team’s magic number.
The first: 163 – (first-place team’s win total + second-place team’s loss total) = magic number.
The second: Games remaining + 1 – (losses by second-place team – losses by first-place team) = magic number.
Every win by the first-place brings the magic number down by one and every loss by the second-place team also brings the number down one.
MLB postseason schedule 2025
Here’s the schedule for the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs. All wild-card games are hosted by division winner or wild-card team with better record.
- Tuesday, Sept. 30: Wild-card round Game 1s.
- Wednesday, Oct. 1: Wild-card round Game 2s.
- Thursday, Oct. 2: Wild-card round Game 3s (if necessary).
- Saturday, Oct. 4: ALDS and NLDS Game 1s.
Tigers playoff odds, win projections
The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees clinched their playoff spots on Wednsday, with the M’s locking up their first AL West title since 2001 and the Yanks pulling into a tie with the Toronto Blue Jays atop the AL East (though the Blue Jays have the season-series tiebreaker). Oh, and the AL Central and final wild-card berth? This section’s stats are through Wednesday’s games:
Baseball Reference: The Tigers no longer have the edge from BBref, though it’s razor-thin – with a projected 86.7 wins (that’s 1.7 wins in their final four) to the Guardians’ 87.9 (2.9 wins in their final four). That cuts the Tigers’ odds of an AL Central title down to 16.3%. As for a playoff spot in general? BBref is slightly more confident in the Tigers, putting them at 62.5% for a wild card, ahead of the Astros at 23.8%. (The Guardians, meanwhile, have just a 13.9% shot at the wild card … mostly because of their 83.7% shot at the Central.)
FanGraphs: No decimals here: It’s a projection of 88 wins for the Guardians and 87 wins for the Tigers, with Detroit getting just an 18.6% chance of taking the Central. Still, the Astros’ slump has the Tigers at 80% to make the playoffs … and face the Guardians in the wild-card round in a rematch of this week … and last week (with the winner facing the Mariners in the ALDS, while the AL East-champion Yankees wait for the winner of a Blue Jays/Red Sox series in Toronto … just like this week. …).
Free Press sports writer Ryan Ford contributed to this report.
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