The WNBA returns from its All-Star Break in a big way, as there are five games on tap. The lone clash between teams with winning records is between the Indiana Fever (12-11) and the New York Liberty (15-6), which tips off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, though Caitlin Clark is once again out with a groin injury. Other notable matchups include the Chicago Sky battling the Minnesota Lynx at 8 p.m. ET and the Atlanta Dream squaring off against the Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
If you’re interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Tuesday, July 22, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Today’s WNBA picks:
- Sky vs. Lynx Under 159.5 points -108 (1 unit, DK)
- Allisha Gray 6+ rebounds +126 (1 unit, FD)
- Gray 8+ rebounds +460 (0.5 units, FD)
- Gray 10+ rebounds +1260 (0.25 units, FD)
Sky vs. Lynx Under 159.5 points
This total has already moved considerably, falling from 163.5 to its current number of 159.5. But I still like this Under enough to play it for a full unit.
Angel Reese is back for the Sky after missing the last game, but Ariel Atkins is out with a leg injury. When those two missed Chicago’s previous game against the Dream, Chicago was run out of the building by a cartoonish 86-49 score.
We have ample data for how the Sky and their opponents perform when Atkins has been on and off the floor this season. In 624 minutes when Atkins has been on the floor, Chicago scores 103.0 points per 100 possessions, and its opponents score 113.0 points per 100 possessions. In 257 minutes with Atkins off the floor, the Sky score 91.0 points per 100 possessions, and their opponents score 102.3 points per 100 possessions.
Basically, the Sky have been about 1.4 points per 100 possessions worse when their second-leading scorer (Atkins averages 13.9 PPG) and top perimeter weapon isn’t playing. But the more stark difference is that the overall scoring drops significantly.
Throw in the fact that these teams are quite familiar with each other since they’ve already played three times over the past two-and-a-half weeks and that it’s the first game after the All-Star Break (hangover alert), and there are quite a few reasons to back this Under.
Allisha Gray rebounding ladder
The Dream have been without Rhyne Howard for their last two games and three games overall this season, which admittedly is not a big sample size. Gray’s rebounding without Howard out, though, is a trend I’m willing to roll the dice on.
In the Dream’s last game against the Sky, Gray grabbed seven rebounds (six defensive rebounds) in just 26 minutes—she sat the final 12 minutes of the contest because it was an 86-49 score. In the other two games without Howard, Gray pulled down eight rebounds in 38 minutes against the Liberty on July 13 and 11 boards in 40 minutes against the Storm on July 3.
For more context, Gray brings in 5.6 rebounds per game this season (third on the team), and Howard averages 5.0 boards (tied for fourth).
Besides Howard being out, there are also some positives regarding Gray’s opponent tonight. First, the Aces are a 1-point home favorite, so it makes sense to expect a closer game and not worry as much about a blowout limiting Gray’s minutes.
The Aces are the fourth-worst rebounding team in the WNBA (they rebound 48.2% of all missed shots), highlighted by the fact that they are the second-worst offensive rebounding team (they rebound 27.3% of their own misses). That 27.3% offensive rebounding mark puts the Aces in between two of those “Gray without Howard” opponents, with the Liberty last (25.1%) and the Storm as the third-worst squad (27.4%).
When Gray had 11 rebounds against the Storm without Howard, nine came on the defensive end. Against the Liberty, seven of Gray’s eight boards were defensive rebounds. Gray takes the second-most shots per game on the team (only behind Howard), and a lot of them are perimeter shots, so we’re not banking on many offensive rebounds here. But she does crash the defensive glass, and she’s been doing so against weaker offensive rebounding teams, especially when Howard has been sidelined.
Overall record: 38-42, +1.52 units
